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11 février 2009 3 11 /02 /février /2009 18:03

Recipe for political disaster

Tal Cohen
Eitan Haber Tal Cohen


Eitan Haber offers nine remarks in wake of election results, calls for changing system

Eitan Haber

Published:  02.11.09, 12:47 / Israel Opinion
1. It’s complicated. Tzipi Livni won, yet Netanyahu will apparently be the prime minister. However, much still depends on the final results. One thing is clear to every Israeli voter: The political system is crushed.

 

Political logic dictates that Netanyahu needs to steal the carpet from under Tzipi’s feet, and therefore today he shall attempt to bring together the National Camp on all its factions and parties. Only after he secures 61 Knesset seats, he shall turn to Tzipi Livni and Ehud Barak and offer them to join him. Their price on the political market will be very low by then. This way the National Camp’s dream shall be realized: Crush Kadima and break the Labor Party.

 

2. A wild dream: I dreamt a wild, delusional, crazy dream the night before Election Day: The moment the final results are published, Benjamin Netanyahu, Tzipi Livni, and Ehud Barak make a joint appearance on our television screens. In simple Hebrew they say: In the face of the security, diplomatic and economic threats expected by the State of Israel in the next year or two, we decided to join forces, to only see the welfare of the country before us, and to form a joint government. This government shall remain in power until the Israeli and global solution to the Iranian nuclear issue is found, or until we take a joint decision. For the time being, this appears to be a realistic opportunity only if we see a rotation between Livni and Netanyahu.

 

3. And who will be the prime minister? The answer is very simple: The head of the largest faction, in line with the final results of the elections, rather than the results of the exit polls or almost-final results.

 

4. We’re screwed (part 1). The election results allow the rightist bloc with Lieberman plus Shas, United Torah Judaism, the Jewish Home, and National Union to form a government. Yet I bet this is Bibi Netanyahu’s nightmare. As opposed to those who trust in God, Bibi, the man of the world, knows that the State of Israel’s existence – yes, existence! – depends on legitimacy on the part of the nations of the world, and a rightist government like the one he can form will be an ostracized and blacklisted one-time event.

 

Last week it was published that Iran and Israel are the two countries most hated by international public opinion. Now, the last thing Bibi Netanyahu needs is to compete with Ahmadinejad for top spot.

 

5. We’re screwed (part 2). The three largest parties, all of which failed to secure even 30 mandates, are a recipe for political disaster. In the absence of a solid base of at least one large party, the next elections are merely a matter of time.

 

6. The next elections. Write it down: The next Knesset elections will be held in the summer of 2010.

 

7. What for? Does anyone remember why we had elections yesterday? What did the parties say? What will be the agenda? What did we vote on yesterday?

 

8. Despair meets despair. On Tuesday, near the polling stations, we saw and heard the various sectors of the Israeli nation. We encountered the reasoning of voters as to who to vote for, and the information they possessed about the various candidates, parties, and their future plans. After he was elected, Menachem Begin said that “we have a wise people.” He of course meant to the wisdom of the people who voted for him. Begin is no longer here with us – and we allow ourselves to doubt his lofty descriptions.


9. Governability. A new word entered our lexicon, governability – the ability to govern. Well, no government in the past years had the ability the govern, and the next government won’t have it either. As long as the government system in Israel allows every bastard to be king and every prime minister is trampled over, there’s no governability. We already tried out several government systems – perhaps the time has come to try out the presidential system of government?
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11 février 2009 3 11 /02 /février /2009 09:10
08:22 Les réserves de gaz découvertes au large de Haïfa sont de 60% supérieures aux estimations initiales. Ce stock est évalué à 25 milliards de dollars. La compagnie Noble Energie, qui a réalisé le forage dénommé Tamar 1, a annoncé la nouvelle à la bourse américaine.  (Guysen.International.News)

09:22 Il y a 40% de chances de découvrir une nouvelle réserve de gaz au large de Hadera, ont annoncé ce mercredi les compagnies d'énergie impliquées dans les prospections dénommées Dalit 1.  (Guysen.International.News)

Noble Raises Estimate for Gas Discovery Off Israel (Update2)

By Jim Polson

Feb. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Noble Energy Inc. said its Tamar natural-gas discovery off the coast of Israel is probably 61 percent larger than initially estimated when announced last month.

Tamar’s potential is 5 trillion cubic feet, based on initial flow testing, Houston-based Noble Energy said today in a statement. Flow rate from the well was 30 million cubic feet per day, limited by the testing equipment, and production may reach 150 million cubic feet a day, the company said.

Noble and its partners will keep the Atwood Hunter drilling rig for at least two more wells and they are discussing more extensive seismic surveys in the area. The Tamar discovery may provide enough gas to supply Israel for 15 years, Noble Energy Chief Executive Officer Charles Davidson said Feb. 5.

“This discovery is clearly of a size for commercial development,” Davidson said in today’s statement. “The implications of this discovery to Israel cannot be overstated.”

Israel had 1.28 trillion cubic feet of proved natural gas reserves at the end of 2007, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Production of 27.5 billion cubic feet in 2006 matched consumption.

Noble Energy operates and has a 36 percent working interest in the Matan license, where the well was drilled, and another Israeli license, Michal.

Other partners in Matan and Michal include Isramco Negev 2 with an almost 29 percent interest and Delek Drilling with about 16 percent. Avner Oil Exploration has about 16 percent, and Dor Gas Exploration has the remaining 4 percent.

Noble Energy fell 90 cents, or 1.6 percent, to $54.51 in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. Before today, the shares had risen 13 percent this year. Rig owner Atwood Oceanics Inc. fell 82 cents to $17.31.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jim Polson in New York at jpolson@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: February 10, 2009 16:16 EST



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11 février 2009 3 11 /02 /février /2009 09:05
No clear winner – Kadima 28, Likud 27

With nearly all ballots counted, Kadima continues to hold extremely narrow lead over Likud. Both Livni and Netanyahu declare victory, say confident president will task them with formation of new government. Yisrael Beitenu secures 15 mandates, followed by Labor with 13

Photo: AP
Tzipi Livni Photo: AP
 
Photo: Yaron Brener
Benjamin Netanyahu 


Ynet

Latest Update:  02.11.09, 05:43 / Israel News

Even with 99% of today's ballots tallied, the identity of Israel's next prime minister is anyone's guess. The tight race between Kadima's Tzipi Livni and the Likud's Benjamin Netanyahu will now be determined by President Shimon Peres, who is required to task one of the candidates with forming a new government.

 

Kadima managed to secure 28 mandates while the Likud won 27, with a mere 36,000 votes separate between the two. Netanyahu's chances at consolidating a relatively cohesive right-wing coalition are undeniably stronger than Livni's coalition-building options.

 

The official results also confirmed that Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beitenu with its 15 mandates has ousted Labor as the third-largest political party, while Labor under Defense Minister Ehud Barak only managed to scrape 13 mandates. Shas has preserved its power, holding on to its 11 seats and United Torah Judaism received 5 mandates. Hadash, United Arab List – Ta'al and the National Union won 4 mandates while Meretz, Habayit Hayehudi and Balad received 3.

 

The only ballots yet to be counted are those of IDF soldiers, mariners and Israeli representatives abroad. Their votes will be tallied over the course of the coming days.

 

The results were confirmed by the Central Elections Committee in Jerusalem. As of 4:30 am on Wednesday the committee is still missing the ballots of four polling stations. 64 additional stations will have to repeat the election process. Other ballots yet to be counted are those of IDF soldiers, mariners and Israeli representatives abroad. Their votes will be tallied over the course of the coming days.

 

Success has many fathers

Both Livni and Netanyahu told their respective supporters that they would be the next prime minister. Greeting hundreds of party supporters in Tel Aviv, Livni called on chief rival Netanyahu to be part of a national unity government under her leadership as premier.

 

"Before the elections I offered you to join a national unity government led by me to take on the challenges facing the State of Israel. You declined and said the people must choose. Today the people have chosen – Kadima," Livni said.

 

Netanyahu however saw things very differently. "The Israeli people have spoken loud and clear, our way has triumphed and we will lead with it," said Netanyahu, going on to say he was confident he would be the one tasked with forming a "large, stable government."

 

"The national camp led by the Likud has clearly won the edge," said Netanyahu. "The question is not what the polls say, but what the reality does. In the outgoing Knesset, if you recall, the national camp only had 50 mandates, and today it has won an absolute majority.

 

Meanwhile Yisrael Beiteinu's Lieberman said that his party "had set the agenda of this year's election" and vowed to continue shaping the national agenda in accordance with that. Addressing the fact that his

party may be the deciding factor as to whether Livni or Netanyahu forms a coalition, Lieberman claimed that Yisrael Beiteinu "had determined the agenda of this year's election - citizenship and loyalty."

 

Labor Chairman Ehud Barak was considerably more somber on Tuesday as the extent of his party's loss at the ballot became evident. Flanked only by MKs Eitan Cabel and Shalom Simchon Barak conceded defeat. Addressing Labor supporters shocked by the tremendous blow dealt to the left-wing bloc, Barak said he was not stepping down from his position, but also did not make any statements alluding Labor intends to lead the opposition. 

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10 février 2009 2 10 /02 /février /2009 23:52
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10 février 2009 2 10 /02 /février /2009 23:31
More votes counted, Likud closes gap


Published:  02.11.09, 00:20 / Israel News


With 10% of votes counted, Likud has closed the gap with frontrunner Kadima to less than 2% of the votes. Kadima received 22.2% of the vote while Likud has 20.7% of the vote.

 

Yisrael Beiteinu and Labor are still ranked third and fourth, respectively. (Ynet)


10% of votes counted – Kadima 22.2%, Likud 20.7%

As of midnight the votes have been tallied in 904 polling stations, giving Livni a 1.5% lead over rival Netanyahu. Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beitenu ranks third with 12.5%, followed by Labor with 11% and Shas with 9.5%

Ynet

Published:  02.11.09, 00:39 / Israel News

As the election results start pouring in, the Central Election Committee in Jerusalem has confirmed that with 10% of votes counted, Kadima is currently leading the Likud by less than 2% of the vote.

 

In all 904 polling stations have so far submitted their final tallies to the committee. Kadima received 22.2% of the vote while Likud has 20.7% of the vote.

 

Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beitenu ranks third with 12.5%, followed by Labor with 11% and Shas with 9.5%. Meretz won 3.6%, National Union 3%, United Arab List – Ta'al 2.8% and Hadash 2.06%. The remainder of the contending parties failed to garner enough votes to cross the threshold.

 

According to a Rafi Smith poll comissioned by Ynet, Kadima won 28 Knesset seats, Likud came in second with 26 mandates, Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu won 16 seats, and Labor won 14 mandates. The rightist bloc won a total of 65 seats according to the poll.

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10 février 2009 2 10 /02 /février /2009 22:39

23:
40 Législatives : des dirigeants de Kadima ont déclaré que « l'établissement du gouvernement sera difficile et complexe. Netanyahou a déjà (le soutien de) toute la droite ».  (Guysen.International.News)



23:37  Législatives : Ehoud Barak a déclaré avoir l'intention d'agir pour changer le régime parlementaire en Israël. « Il est impensable que le parti au pouvoir ait moins que le quart des députés », a-t-il indiqué.  (Guysen.International.News)
Kadima: Gov't-building to be hard, complicated


Published:  02.10.09, 23:15 / Israel News

Senior officials in Kadima responded to exit polls with remarks related to future coalition building led by their party, Tuesday's apparent winner.

 

"The creation of a government will be difficult and complicated. (Likud Chairman Benjamin) Netanyahu already has all of the right-wing parties." (Attila Somfalvi)


 Tzipi Livni pourrait donc devenir la nouvelle chef du gouvernement.
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10 février 2009 2 10 /02 /février /2009 21:05
Polls show narrow win for Livni


Published:  02.10.09, 21:59 / Israel News


 

Ynet poll: Kadima wins; Labor crashes


Tzipi Livni big winner of 2009 elections, according to Rafi Smith exit poll commissioned by Ynet; Kadima wins 28 Knesset seats, Likud comes in second with 26, Lieberman third with 16, Labor crashes to 14

Ynet

Latest Update:  02.10.09, 22:12 / Israel News
Kadima wins elections, but will it form the next government? Kadima and its Chairwoman, Tzipi Livni, are the big winners of the 2009 general elections, according to a Rafi Smith exit poll commissioned by Ynet, with Likud finishing a disappointing 2nd.

 

Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu delivered at crunch time to become Israel's third-largest party, while Ehud Barak's Labor party sustained a harsh blow. Exit polls by Israel's major television channels showed similar results

 

According to the Rafi Smith poll, Kadima won 28 Knesset seats, Likud came in second with 26 mandates, Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu won 16 seats, and Labor won 14 mandates.

 

Below are the complete results of the Smith-Ynet poll:

 

  • Kadima 28
  • Likud 26
  • Yisrael Beiteinu 16
  • Labor 14
  • Shas 10
  • United Torah Judaism 6
  • Hadash 5
  • Jewish Home 4
  • United Arab List – Ta'al 4
  • Meretz 4
  • National Union 3

 

According to Channel 1, Kadima won 30 Knesset seats, Likud won 28 mandates, Yisrael Beiteinu won 14 seats, and Labor ended up with 13 mandates. Channel 2's exit poll predicted that Kadima won 29 Knesset seats, Likud came in second with 27 mandates, Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu won 15 seats, and Labor won 13 mandates.

 

'Celebration of democracy'

The turnout rate, which reached nearly 60% by 8 pm, exceeded that of the 2006 elections, dispelled fears that the inclement weather would keep potential voters indoors.

 

Earlier Tuesday Judge Eliezer Rivlin, chairman of the Central Elections Committee, said that "the elections are being held as planned and this is celebration of democracy."

 

Political party leaders cast their vote for Israel's 18th Knesset shortly after the polling stations opened all across the country at 7 am.



Allegations of voting irregularities surfaced just hours after the polling stations opened. The Meretz party filed a complaint with the Central Elections Committee claiming the party's ballots at a Jerusalem polling station were tampered with.

 

Livni called on Israel's citizens to carry out their civic duty, saying "rain or shine, you stand behind the curtain at the polling station, close your eyes and imagine – not out of fear or desperation – how you would like to feel once the election results are announced."


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10 février 2009 2 10 /02 /février /2009 09:02


 

Par Jacques Bendelac
Rubrique: Actualité
Publié le 10 février 2009 à 06:16

AUX URNES CITOYENS ! Ce sont 5.278.985 d’Israéliens qui sont invités à se rendre aux urnes aujourd’hui. Ont le droit de voter tous les citoyens israéliens âgés de plus de 18 ans et qui résident en Israël.

Depuis le précédent scrutin de 2006, le nombre des électeurs israéliens a augmenté de 293.000 individus, soit une progression de 6,5%.

Ce chiffre ne comprend pas les Arabes habitant dans les quartiers Est de Jérusalem, ni les Druzes du Plateau du Golan, qui n’ont pas la citoyenneté israélienne.

De même, le nombre des électeurs potentiels ne comprend pas les Israéliens installés à l’étranger pour une longue durée. Selon le communiqué de l’Institut de la Statistique, il s’agirait de 593.000 Israéliens qui ne disposeraient pas du droit de vote en Israël en raison de leur absence prolongée du pays.

En 2009, les électeurs israéliens se composent de 81% de Juifs, de 14% d’Arabes (musulmans, chrétiens et druzes) et de 5% d’individus sans religion déclarée.

Jacques Bendelac (Jérusalem)

Voting commenced at 7 am  Photo: Reuters
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9 février 2009 1 09 /02 /février /2009 21:16
http://fr.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1233304729953&pagename=JFrench%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull
Test de loyauté
Par ABE SELIG
09.02.09


Le dirigeant du parti Israël Beitenou, Avigdor Lieberman, a annoncé lors d'un meeting à Haïfa dimanche soir qu'il comptait introduire une loi sur la loyauté des citoyens.

Le leader d'Israël Beiteinou, Avigdor Lieberman.

Photo: Ariel Jerozolimski , JPost

 

Les partisans d'Israël Beiteinou, favorables à l'idée d'insuffler d'avantage de loyauté dans le pays, restent pourtant perplexes sur la manière dont une telle politique peut être appliquée.

"Ils ne vont pas les envoyer directement en prison", explique Arik Vexler, un habitant de Haïfa qui s'est opposé à la communauté arabe de la ville à l'entrée du meeting du parti.

"Il s'agit d'avantage d'une mesure contre ceux qui ne respectent pas la loi", explique-t-il en ajoutant : "Prenez ces manifestants par exemple.

Vous avez le droit de protester mais il y a une limite. Si vous êtes pris en train de faire quelque chose de violent ou d'interdit, la loi s'applique également à vous et il [Lieberman] dit juste qu'il va la renforcer."

"S'ils veulent obtenir la citoyenneté, ils doivent signer un papier sur lequel ils affirment croire en l'Etat juif. Pour les Arabes, je crois que la loi sur la loyauté est faite pour qu'ils sachent que nous sommes sérieux. Nous refusons de les laisser faire ce qu'ils veulent sans broncher.

Quant à les arrêter, je ne sais pas ce que le parti prévoit de faire, mais j'ai confiance en eux. Au moins, ils en parlent", explique Rafi, un autre partisan d'Israël Beiteinou.

Lors du meeting politique, Lieberman a répété son slogan: "Sans loyauté, pas de citoyenneté".
Le leader du parti a ajouté que le Likoud soutenait son projet d'instaurer un test de loyauté pour les citoyens, sans préciser en quoi il consisterait.

Ouzi Landau, n° 2 de la liste d'Israël Beitenou, s'est également adressé à la foule et a expliqué que le jeu avait changé depuis le début de la campagne électorale.

"Les premiers sondages ne nous donnaient que huit mandats. C'est aujourd'hui une autre affaire. Et cela arrive parce que le peuple d'Israël en a assez de ces leaders qui disent une chose et en font une autre", d'après Landau.

Michaël Lavan, un autre habitant de Haïfa a expliqué au Jerusalem Post : "Vous auriez dû voir Haïfa pendant la guerre. Tous les jours ils nous jetaient des pierres, nos voisins arabes. Ils se sont retournés contre nous. Cela a d'avantage de résonance ici qu'ailleurs. C'est comme une maladie et Lieberman est le seul à en parler."

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9 février 2009 1 09 /02 /février /2009 14:47


A la veille des élections, le fils d'Itzhak Rabin, Yuval et Benjamin Netanyahou ont tenu une conférence de presse commune, lors de laquelle ils ont appelé à la formation d'un gouvernement d'Union Nationale face aux neaces et notamment au péril iranien. Tradition familiale oblige, "Bibi" n'a pour autant, pas obtenu le lbanc seing qu'il escomptait en dernière minute de la part de Youval Rabin, à savoir un appel à suivre le Likoud, qui aurait pu détourner certains électeurs traditionnels d'Avoda (Parti Travailliste). Cependant, "'l'enfant terrible" Yuval a porté, en début de campagne, des coups sévères à la gauche en déclarant partager certaines vues communes avec le Likoud (en matière de défense, entre autres).

A l'heure qu'il est, les sondages sont interdits en Israël et l'on suppose que le résultat final pourrait être plus serré qu'on ne l'imaginait avant l'opération "Plomb Durci", celle-ci ayant fait monter le nombre de suffrage pour d'anciens éléments du Gouvernement précédent, tels Barak et Livni. D'autre part, l'ombre d'Avigdor Lieberman plane sur la stratégie "gagnante" du Likoud, à la façon d'un repoussoir... D'où cette ouverture à l'union nationale, qui peut encore apparaître comme une façon de laisser entendre que les jeux, quels que soient les scores, n'ont sont pas fermés à d'éventuelles négociations de dernière minute. Résultats dans un peu plus d'une 30taine d'heures...

 

Netanyahu, Yuval Rabin call for unity government
Rabin won't vote Likud  Photo: Yaron Brener
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Amnon Meranda

Published:  02.09.09, 14:56 / Israel News
Likud Chairman Benjamin Netanyahu has held several meetings in recent months with Yuval Rabin, the son of slain Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin. On Monday, on the eve of the Knesset elections, the two convened a press conference in Tel Aviv and spoke of the need for a national unity government.

 

During the meeting, however, Rabin did not make the statement the Likud had hoped to hear.

 

3 Months Ago
 
Rabin's son mulls voting for Netanyahu / Yuval Karni
 
Thirteen years after father's assassination, Yuval Rabin reportedly leaning towards voting for Likud chairman, who was blamed by family for part in incitement leading up to murder. Sources say he feels there is no better alternative
Full story
 
"The point of this meeting is not to voice my support for one party or another, and Mr. Netanyahu knows I won't be voting Likud," Rabin declared. Asked which party would gain his support, he replied, "Labor."

 

Netanyahu spoke of his acquaintanceship with Yitzhak Rabin's son. "I met with him several times in the past few months, including today, and told him what I have been telling the public as well: I plan to win tomorrow and form a unity government with all the Zionist parties which will be as wide as possible, in order to ward off Israel's existential dangers.

 

"The threats coming from Iran are strong, and we need to protect the workplaces. This cannot be down without a broad, strong unity government."

 

"This is exactly what I wanted to hear," said Rabin. As he began talking, the chairman of Young Meretz, Uri Zaki, lashed out at him and said, "Your father would be ashamed of you. The entire peace camp is ashamed of you. This is a disgrace."

 

After Zaki was removed from the room, Netanyahu said, "This is an example of the approach which continues to divide the people instead of uniting the people. Our approach is the opposite: We cannot afford disputes and fights now. Iran and Hamas are at the gate…

 

"There was once a rift between us and it no longer exists," he said of Yuval Rabin.


Netanyahu and Rabin at the press conference (Photo: Yaron Brener)

 

 
At the start of the election campaign, Yuval Rabin criticized the Israeli Left and expressed his solidarity with some of the Likud chairman's statements. On the eve of the elections, however, he vowed to vote for Labor Chairman Ehud Barak.

 

Attila Somfalvi contributed to this report

 

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  • : Le blog de Gad
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A tous nos chers lecteurs.

 

Ne vous est-il jamais venu à l'esprit d'en savoir un peu plus sur le titre de ce blog ?

Puisque nous nous sommes aujourd'hui habillés de bleu, il conviendrait de rentrer plus a fond dans l'explication du mot lessakel.

En fait Lessakel n'est que la façon française de dire le mot léhasskil.

L'hébreu est une langue qui fonctionne en déclinant des racines.

Racines, bilitères, trilitères et quadrilitères.

La majorité d'entre elle sont trilitères.

Aussi Si Gad a souhaité appeler son site Lessakel, c'est parce qu'il souhaitait rendre hommage à l'intelligence.

Celle qui nous est demandée chaque jour.

La racine de l'intelligence est sé'hel שכל qui signifie l'intelligence pure.

De cette racine découlent plusieurs mots

Sé'hel > intelligence, esprit, raison, bon sens, prudence, mais aussi croiser

Léhasskil > Etre intelligent, cultivé, déjouer les pièges

Sé'hli > intelligent, mental, spirituel

Léhistakel > agir prudemment, être retenu et raisonnable, chercher à comprendre

Si'hloute > appréhension et compréhension

Haskala >  Instruction, culture, éducation

Lessa'hlen > rationaliser, intellectualiser

Heschkel > moralité

Si'htanout > rationalisme

Si'hloul > Amélioration, perfectionnement

 

Gageons que ce site puisse nous apporter quelques lumières.

Aschkel pour Lessakel.

 

 

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