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14 mai 2008 3 14 /05 /mai /2008 14:59
Iran : des gardiens de la révolution capturés dans des combats au Liban Print E-mail
mardi, 13 mai 2008

CNRI – Des sources des services de renseignement libanais ont révélé que des combattants du Hezbollah capturés durant les  combats du week-end au Liban, ne connaissent pas l’arabe, et ne parlent que le persan, a rapporté un site libanais « Ya Lebanon ».

Les sources ajoutent que les prisonniers ont soit été identifiés par des tiers, soit se sont identifiés comme des membres du corps des gardiens de la révolution iraniens.

La semaine dernière, le leader druze Walid Jumblatt avait appelé à la fin des vols de l’Iran vers le Liban. Il disait que les avions transportaient des combattants iraniens et leurs armes au Liban pour une grosse conflagration ou une prise de contrôle.

“On voit qu’aujourd’hui, les craintes de Joumblatt se sont avérées vraies », ajoute le site.
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11 mai 2008 7 11 /05 /mai /2008 09:18
 Ne nous leurrons pas, le Hezbollah est bel et bien sorti vainqueur de l'épreuve de force qu'il a imposé au gouvernement libanais après quatre journées d'affrontements. Comble de l'ironie, c'est la majorité gouvernementale qui lui a offert la victoire sur un plateau suite à sa décision de s'en remettre à l'armée pour trancher le litige entre les deux parties. Incapable de s'opposer à la puissance militaire du mouvement intégriste, lâché par l'armée libanaise, le gouvernement a finalement capitulé. Le Hezbollah a en effet obtenu ce qu'il cherchait. A savoir :


- Le recul du gouvernement sur le limogeage du chef de la sécurité de l'aéroport, Wafic Choukair, proche du Hezbollah. Finalement celui-ci restera à son poste et le Hezbollah pourra maintenir son emprise sur ce site stratégique, ce qui lui assure un approvisionnement illimité en armes.

- Par ailleurs, l'armée a dit qu'elle allait "étudier" le réseau de télécommunications parallèle hautement sophistiqué du Hezbollah, sur lequel le gouvernement voulait enquêter. Autrement dit rien ne sera fait et le Hezbollah pourra poursuivre tranquillement la planification de son prochain affrontement avec Israël afin de pouvoir répondre présent lorsque le grand-frère iranien lui en donnera l'ordre. Entraînant ainsi contre son gré la majorité des Libanais dans un nouveau conflit.

Mais au-delà de ses deux revendications initiales, le Hezbollah a obtenu bien davantage. Comme je l'avais écrit dès le 31 mars (http://www.rebelles.info/article-18161427.html) "le Hezbollah a reçu le feu vert de Damas et Téhéran pour renverser le gouvernement de Fouad Siniora afin de s'assurer les coudées franches pour un conflit d'envergure avec Israël qui impliquerait également le hamas." En s'emparant de Beyrouth-ouest, en humiliant la majorité et plus particulièrement sa composante sunnite, le clan Hariri, en obligeant par la force armée le Premier ministre à revenir sur les décisions prises en début de semaine, le parti de Hassan Nasrallah (photo) a prouvé à ses mentors iraniens et syriens que le moment venu ils pourront s'appuyer sur le Hezbollah pour se débarasser facilement du gouvernement libanais proche des Occidentaux. Il offre ainsi à l'Iran sa formidable capacité de nuisance. En attendant, même si il n'a pas officiellement renversé Fouad Siniora, il l'a tellement affaibli et destabilisé que sa démarche peut s’apparenter à celle du Hamas dans la bande de Gaza. Car désormais il n'y a plus un Liban mais deux Liban. Un Liban qui cours de la frontière israélienne jusqu'à Beyrouth, sous la coupe du Hezbollah. Et un autre Liban, qui représente certes la majorité des Libanais mais qui est chancelant, désarmé et quasi impuissant face à la puissance militaire de la milice chiite. Ce Liban là ne pèse plus très lourd. Fouad Siniora peut bien écarter toute démission de son gouvernement, en réalité il ne gouverne déjà plus rien.
Sauver les apparences, voilà à quoi le Hezbollah l'a réduit.

Le Hezbollah a également démontré la faiblesse et l'impuissance de la majorité mais également celle de l'armée qui n'a jamais cherché à s'opposer au Hezbollah. Pire, en donnant gain de cause au mouvement intégriste, cette dernière semble parfaitement s'accomoder de la toute puissance du parti de Dieu et il convient désormais de s'interroger sur une collusion entre ces deux entités dans un rapport du fort au faible. L'armée afin de sauvegarder un semblant d'unité préférant se rallier au Hezbollah plutôt que de se désintégrer en de multiples factions ethniques.

Enfin, en humiliant le gouvernement libanais Hassan Nasrallah a démontré l'impuissance des Etats-Unis et de l'Europe à contrer les ambitions de la milice chiite. L'impuissance de l'Arabie-saoudite et de l'Egypte à contrer l'influence de l'Iran et de la Syrie au Liban. L'impuissance de la Finul et par conséquent de l'ONU à se faire respecter au pays du cèdre. Belle revanche pour Damas et Téhéran !

Mais ce qui vient de se passer durant ces quatre jours doit également interpeller l'Etat hébreu. Absorbés par leurs problèmes de politique intérieure, les Israéliens ont fait preuve d'une discrétion et d'une passivité inhabituelle. Il devient urgent pour Israël de disposer à sa tête d'une équipe cohérente, capable de prendre les décisions douloureuses qui s'imposent. Il devient urgent qu'Ehud Olmert, totalement discrédité, laisse sa place afin qu'Israël puisse se préparer aux vents mauvais qui s'annoncent.

David Bescond pour Rebelles.info

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11 mai 2008 7 11 /05 /mai /2008 09:00
Bush Astonishingly Slow to Learn Cutthroat Rules of the Middle East

May 10, 2008
Globe and Mail
Mark Mackinnon



BEIRUT -- Iran 2, the United States 0.

Last year in the Gaza Strip, now in Lebanon, Tehran's proxy armies rapidly defeated the weak and isolated friends of the West.

The latest rout came on the streets of Beirut yesterday, where Iranian-backed Hezbollah fighters occupied much of Sunni Muslim West Beirut, turf that once belonged to America's friends in Lebanon, Saad Hariri, Walid Jumblatt and Prime Minister Fouad Siniora.

For months, pundits had speculated that Lebanon was on the verge of another civil war, with some speculating that it could be nearly as prolonged and bloody as the last conflict, which lasted from 1975 to 1990 and left approximately 100,000 people dead.

But by early yesterday morning, it became abundantly clear that Mr. Hariri's Future Movement, which had been so hopefully named by his peacemaker father before his still-unsolved assassination in 2005, was no match for Hezbollah's military might.

The United States and its Sunni Muslim allies, primarily the tiny but affluent United Arab Emirates, had funnelled money and weapons to Mr. Hariri's men in anticipation of this conflict, apparently to no avail. By nightfall, all the White House could do was condemn Hezbollah's aggression and express its “unswerving support” for Mr. Siniora's humiliated government. The comparisons to Gaza — where Iranian-backed Hamas routed the Western-supported Fatah movement of Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas in six days, seizing complete control of the coastal strip — were obvious and inescapable.

There, too, the United States invested heavily in a secular party that fit U.S. President George W. Bush's dream of a moderate, pro-Western Middle East. As in Lebanon, they proved great at shaking hands with Condoleezza Rice, less able when it came to armed combat against militant Islamists armed and equipped by Tehran.

Though the crisis over Iran's nuclear program has yet to come to a head, the war between Tehran and Washington is already very much under way. It has been since the day the United States toppled Saddam Hussein and made it clear Iran could easily be next.

Motivated in part by that fear, in part by a desire to supplant the United States as the hegemonic power in the Middle East, Iran has ably joined the geopolitical battle, funding chaos and undermining the American vision of a “new Middle East” across the board.

Iranian-backed Shia militias have helped ensure that Iraq would never turn into the pro-Western democracy the neo-conservatives once dreamed it could be. Hamas rockets have made sure that Mr. Bush's efforts to promote Israeli-Palestinian peace have been largely a road map to nowhere. And now Hezbollah has demolished the last traces of Lebanon's pro-Western Cedar Revolution of three years ago.

Throughout this cold war with Iran, Washington has consistently misunderstood its hand, and how angry the “Arab Street” was over the invasion of Iraq and the decades of unconditional support the United States has lent Israel. And by stubbornly isolating Syria and Hamas – the former a secular dictatorship uncomfortable among its Islamist allies, the latter a Sunni militant group instinctively suspicious of Shia Iran – Mr. Bush pushed them further into Tehran's embrace, strengthening the rejectionist axis that Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad now leads.

His administration also badly underestimated their enemy's strength, and has been astonishingly slow to learn the cutthroat rules of the Middle East.

In Lebanon, the cards played out like this: If and when the nuclear crisis boils over into military conflict, Iran needs Hezbollah to be armed and ready to strike America's top ally in the region, Israel. So when Mr. Siniora's government declared this week that it would dismantle Hezbollah's secret communications grid, a fibre-optic network that leader Hassan Nasrallah declared to be a critical part of his group's arsenal, the gloves came off.

Iran decided it couldn't allow Washington to take away one of its best weapons on the eve of a potential fight. So its proxy, Hezbollah, carried out what appears to have been a long-prepared plan for seizing control of West Beirut.

Last year, Jordan's King Abdullah made international headlines when he warned that the Middle East would soon face three separate conflicts, in Iraq – where Iranian-backed Shia militants are at war with both Sunni fighters and the occupying U.S. army – as well as Palestine and Lebanon.

King Abdullah erred only in describing the three as separate fights rather than what they are: fronts in the same war. And none of them are going terribly well for the old hegemon right now.

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11 mai 2008 7 11 /05 /mai /2008 08:54
Le Hezbollah a reçu 35 nouvelles vedettes iraniennes peu de temps avant la crise actuelle
11 mai 2008 - DEBKAfile - adaptation française par desinfos

Des sources militaires de DEBKA rapporte que trois semaines avant que le Hezbollah se saisisse de l’ouest de Beyrouth, le groupe terroriste chiite a pris livraison de 35 vedettes rapides pour l’utilisation d’explosifs en provenance d’Iran.

Les vedettes peuvent menacer la sixième flotte américaine et Israël par une expédition maritime près de côtes libanaises et parvenir en Israël à Haïfa et Ashdod ports de la Méditerranée et leurs zones côtières et aussi par des raids sur les installations pétrolières.

Les vedettes ont été taillées sur mesure pour le Hezbollah par les Gardiens de la Révolution de l’Iran dans les chantiers navals à Bandar Abbas comme la seule flotte terroriste opérant dans les eaux méditerranéennes. Nos sources militaires rapportent que les bateaux sont capables de transporter des systèmes d’armes chimiques, biologiques et et radioactives.

Ils ont été livrés à la mi-avril par un cargo iranien au port syrien de Lattaquié et transportés par camion à Naimah port au sud de Beyrouth.

Là, ils ont été cachés dans les souterrains des hangars appartenant à Ahmed Jibril, chef du Front de libération de la Palestine-Commandement général. Aujourd’hui, le PLF-GC est financé et dirigé par les Gardiens de la Révolution.

Les hangars ont été construits dans les années soixante-dix par les ingénieurs de l’Allemagne de l’Est avec un ancrage protégé de la Méditerranée, ce qui les rend pratiquement impénétrables par mer ou par air.


Exclusive: Hizballah received 35 new Iranian speedboats shortly before current crisis

May 11, 2008, 9:22 AM (GMT+02:00)




DEBKAfile’s military sources report that three weeks before Hizballah seized western Beirut, the Shiite terrorist group took delivery of 35 fast speedboats for use with explosives from Iran. The craft can threaten US Sixth Fleet and Israel Navy shipping close to Lebanese shores, reach Israel’s Haifa and Ashdod Mediterranean ports and raid its coastal oil installations.

The speedboats were tailor-made for Hizballah by Iranian Revolutionary Guards shipyards at Bandar Abbas as the only marine terror fleet operating in Mediterranean waters. Our military sources report the boats are capable of carrying chemical, biological and radiological weapons systems.

They were delivered in mid-April by an Iranian freighter at the Syrian port of Latakia and trucked to Naimah port south of Beirut. There they were hidden in the subterranean hangars belonging to Ahmed Jibril, head of the Palestinian Liberation Front-General Command. Today, the PLF-GC is financed and directed by the Revolutionary Guards. The hangars were constructed in the seventies by East Germany engineers with a protected Mediterranean anchorage and made virtually impenetrable by sea or air.

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10 mai 2008 6 10 /05 /mai /2008 08:38
Des victimes, des dégâts importants, des agressions contre les médias du Futur
Impasse politique et insécurité : la victoire à la Pyrrhus du Hezbollah
Pour le 14 Mars, l’armement de la Résistance a perdu sa légitimité ; Des mesures internationales envisagées contre le parti et ses alliés régionaux

L’ancien immeuble de la Future TV ravagé par le feu.
Deux éléments armés circulant à moto à Hamra.
Un milicien croulant sous le poids des armes.
L’offensive lancée par les miliciens du Hezbollah et d’Amal pour prendre le contrôle de Beyrouth-Ouest a fait revivre aux habitants de ce secteur de la capitale les pires moments de l’invasion israélienne de 1982 ou des combats intermiliciens du milieu des années 80. Au terme d’une nuit d’enfer, jeudi, les miliciens du tandem chiite ont réussi hier matin à imposer leur présence manu militari dans l’ensemble des quartiers ouest, prenant d’assaut la plupart des permanences et des places fortes du Courant du futur. Mais le point noir de la journée d’hier a sans doute été l’inqualifiable musellement de tous les médias du Courant du futur et ceux qui lui sont proches. L’un des bâtiments de la télévision a été délibérément incendié, tandis que le siège de la Fondation Rafic Hariri était saccagé. Parallèlement à ces agressions contre les médias, les événements des dernières 24 heures ont fait une quinzaine de tués, des dizaines de blessés et d’importants dégâts. En outre, des miliciens étaient visibles en fin de journée à proximité immédiate du Grand Sérail, où le Premier ministre Fouad Siniora et plusieurs membres du gouvernement demeurent retranchés, ainsi qu’à Clemenceau et Koraytem, où sont pratiquement assiégés MM. Walid Joumblatt et Saad Hariri. Au plan politique, l’offensive lancée par le Hezbollah revêt incontestablement une dimension régionale, plus précisément iranienne, de sorte que des tractations intensives ont été entreprises dès hier dans plusieurs capitales étrangères. M. Siniora a reçu des appels de Condoleezza Rice, Angela Merkel, Silvio Berlusconi et Saoud Fayçal. En soirée, un porte-parole de la Maison-Blanche a indiqué que Washington allait initier des contacts urgents au niveau du Conseil de Sécurité afin de prendre des « mesures » à l’encontre du Hezbollah et ceux qui se tiennent derrière lui. Il est d’ores et déjà question dans certains milieux à New York de l’envoi d’une force arabo-musulmane à Beyrouth. Dans l’attente du résultat de ces démarches, l’armée et les capitales étrangères auraient fourni des garanties dont il ressort que le Grand Sérail, Clemenceau et Koraytem sont considérés comme des lignes rouges. Au plan local, le 14 Mars a publié un communiqué particulièrement ferme – lu par M. Samir Geagea – affirmant qu’après les derniers événements, l’armement du Hezbollah a perdu sa légitimité. Dans ce cadre, les milieux du Sérail affirmaient hier soir qu’une démission du gouvernement est exclue, de même que l’abrogation des dernières décisions portant sur le réseau téléphonique du Hezbollah ou l’affaire de la surveillance de l’aéroport. L’impasse politique persiste ainsi, et en ajoutant à ce blocage les agressions contre les médias, il paraît évident que la « victoire » du Hezbollah ne soit en définitive qu’une victoire à la Pyrrhus, comme l’a relevé le président Amine Gemayel. Nos informations, et les articles de Lélia Mezher, Mahmoud Harb, Scarlett Haddad et Patricia Khoder
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9 mai 2008 5 09 /05 /mai /2008 23:16
Sites libanais : Liban / L’Iran tente de négocier un accord nucléaire contre le retour au calme au Liban
vendredi 9 mai 2008 - 13h04
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Citant une source médiatique allemande, un site libanais affirme que l’Iran cherche à négocier avec la communauté internationale un accord sur son programme nucléaire, en contrepartie d’un retour au calme au Liban. Ainsi, le Hezbollah, comme l’armée du Mahdi en Irak, ou le Hamas et le Jihad islamique à Gaza, servent les intérêts de Téhéran. Ils appliquent une politique de grignotage pour accentuer la pression et obtenir, au final, une capitulation du monde libre.

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9 mai 2008 5 09 /05 /mai /2008 23:08
Friday, May 09, 2008


Why the West Moves Closer to Bombing Iran

May 09, 2008
Telegraph
Con Coughlin



Another week, another British fatality - and yet more evidence of Iran's lethal meddling on the battlefields of the war on terror. Whether Revolutionary Guards were directly responsible for the massive roadside bomb that killed 29-year-old Trooper Ratu Babakobau in Afghanistan's Helmand province last weekend may never be proved.

In their long history of involvement in terrorism, the Revolutionary Guards have become highly adept at covering their tracks. Even though the first Western hostages kidnapped in Lebanon in the 1980s were put in crates and shipped back to Tehran, Iranian officials persisted with the fiction that they were blameless.

Today, the Iranian government continues to maintain its innocence of any involvement in supporting the bloody insurgencies in Iraq and Afghanistan; this despite the fact that coalition forces regularly discover large arms caches containing powerful weapons clearly marked "made in Tehran".

The recent upsurge of meddling in Afghanistan is particularly troubling. Thanks in part to the determined action of the Army, the Taliban is a shadow of its former self as a major fighting force.

After two years of sustained military pressure, it can no longer mount conventional assaults. Instead it has been forced to revert to asymmetric warfare - terrorism, to you and me - and concentrates on attacking coalition forces with powerful roadside bombs.

These devices have accounted for the last three British fatalities. In April, two members of the Royal Air Force Regiment were killed while on patrol outside the main Nato air base at Kandahar; a similar device claimed the life of Trooper Babakobau, a rugby-playing Fijian serving with the Household Cavalry, who was based at the same remote location where Prince Harry served as a forward air controller.

Trooper Babakobau was travelling in a Spartan armoured personnel carrier, which provides reasonable protection, but was not able to withstand the force of the blast that killed the soldier and injured the four other occupants.

Coalition vehicles are increasingly susceptible to this type of attack because Revolutionary Guards have provided insurgent groups with the technological expertise to construct the bombs that are capable of taking out tanks, let alone armoured personnel carriers, which afford less protection.

This technology was developed by Hizbollah, the Iranian-backed Shia Muslim militia in southern Lebanon, to disable Israel's Merkava tank, reputed to be the best protected tank in the world.

Recent British and American intelligence suggests that Iran has exported Hizbollah's technology to Iraq and Afghanistan, where it has been responsible for the upsurge in roadside bombs. (Most of the 51 American fatalities in Iraq last month were victims of such devices.)

Last year, British special forces intercepted two lorries crossing from Iran into Afghanistan that contained 50 such bombs and timers; last week a senior US military official said that the Revolutionary Guards' elite Quds Force had recruited Hizbollah experts to train Iraq's Shia militias at camps inside Iran.

Intelligence estimates suggest as much as 90 per cent of the hardware being used by insurgents in southern Iraq originates from Iran. Iran's escalating involvement in confronting coalition forces has prompted John Bolton, America's former UN ambassador, to call for US air strikes on Iranian camps training and equipping insurgent groups.

With American troops now fighting alongside British forces based in southern Iraq, the prospect of the coalition becoming involved in direct military confrontation with Iran becomes more likely by the day. The Iranians are terrified the US-led coalition might turn Iraq into a success story, and are doing everything in their power to prevent it. Coalition commanders are convinced the only way to prevent the Iranians from undermining the coalition's hard-won gains is through direct military confrontation.

All of which makes the Government's decision to maintain its ban on the most effective pro-Western Iranian opposition group all the more surprising. Were it not for the People's Mujahideen of Iran (PMOI), we would never have known that Iran had concealed the development of its uranium enrichment facility at Natanz from UN nuclear inspectors who regularly visit the country.

Having started life as a militant group dedicated to the overthrow of the Shah, the PMOI transformed itself into the most effective resistance movement against Ayatollah Khomeini's Islamic revolution after it realised Khomeini had no intention of allowing Iran to become a democratic republic.

And yet the British Foreign Office has put the group on its list of banned terrorist organisations, together with al-Qa'eda. The initial decision was taken by former Foreign Secretary Jack Straw, as part of his attempt to promote cordial relations with Tehran. This perverse situation is unlikely to pertain for much longer after the PMOI this week won its appeal to be taken off the proscribed list, which bans the group from raising funds in the UK.

Dr Mariam Rajavi, the PMOI leader who lives in exile in France, warned in an interview with The Telegraph, that the West would be "sleep-walking to disaster" if it didn't wake up to the threat Iran posed not just to the Middle East, but to the wider world. "Iran is being run by a religious dictatorship that wants to export its ideals throughout the world," she said. "This religious fascism has similar aims to the fascism of Adolf Hitler - world domination. Western governments are deliberately turning a blind eye to what is going on, but I fear that one day very soon they will wake up to the grim reality of what is really going on."

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9 mai 2008 5 09 /05 /mai /2008 21:33

Hezbollah: The End of a Legend

09/05/2008


http://www.asharqalawsat.com/english/news.asp?section=2&id=12686

The Legend of Hezbollah ceased to be after it turned its weapon internally on Lebanon. In the wake of [Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan] Nasrallah's speech and after declaring war on Siniora's government; the party and its leader (the architect of the divine victory) have been exposed for what they truly are.

Hezbollah is not concerned with a balanced Lebanon and does not care much for a Lebanon for all Lebanese. Lebanon is not for Sunnis or Shia; neither is it for Druze or Christians – Lebanon is for all the Lebanese people.

Lebanon is a state based on diversity, not the state of a supreme guide or an [Baath Party founder] Aflaq party. Hezbollah's hijacking of Beirut, which it has been actually occupying since the famous sit-in, has revealed that the talk about resistance was just a cover and a big lie to which the Arabs have been accustomed repeatedly as well as to believing it.

This lie about Hezbollah's resistance is one we have encountered often in our contemporary history, and we still continue to believe it and argue over it even though we know that it is nothing but a lie.

Lebanon's issue is not the airport or that of an officer who disobeys the state and obeys a party's orders but the principal issue is the lie and believing it, the lie that leads to the destruction of our nations.

A lie we saw in the summer war of 2006. Some believed at the time that Hassan Nasrallah had taught Israel a harsh lesson. But what was the price of this lesson? Of course, a broken Lebanon, a besieged government, ministers under house arrest in a hotel, a state begging for money, and more imperative than all this 1,000 Lebanese killed, sacrificed for Nasrallah.

We are used to lies and have become accustomed to living with lies in the Arab world; how else could Iran be capable of setting up a telecommunications network for Hezbollah that operates outside the state's framework and then have the party consider the communications company part of the resistance weapon, just like the airport and the airport manager - so what remains of Lebanon as a state?

What is happening in Lebanon today is clear evidence that Hezbollah must be disarmed and the state must impose its authority over all Lebanon and it should not be in the hands of Nasrallah, Iran, and Syria. Lebanon must be a state administered by a cabinet, not from secret hideouts.

Therefore when I say we have become accustomed to lies, this is not emotional talk or the targeting of the Shia as a community. Have we forgotten that Sunni Hamas swept over and occupied Gaza and declared a coup? And what is the difference now when we have a party occupying Beirut, a group occupying Gaza, with Iran and Syria's support?

Hezbollah's legend has most certainly ended. But the price of discovering the lie of Hassan Nasrallah and his party is going to be costly for Lebanon and the Lebanese and the Arab world as a whole. We are facing a new chapter that is as bad as the previous one in which the Lebanese citizen will pay a very heavy price and therefore those toying with Lebanon must pay a price that ensures an end to the era of violating Lebanon.

States are not built or purged easily. This is the message.

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9 mai 2008 5 09 /05 /mai /2008 12:49
Michel Aoun crie victoire et revendique le succès du coup d’Etat mené par le Hezbollah

vendredi 9 mai 2008 - 12h42, par Khaled Asmar - Beyrouth

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Le général Michel Aoun confirme sa fusion dans le projet syro-iranien et trahit ce qui lui reste comme popularité. Il affirme que "la victoire du Hezbollah est une victoire pour le Liban, une victoire de la légalité et annonce un retour à la vie constitutionnelle". Aoun affirme que la lumière sera faite sur les assassinats qui ont eu lieu au Liban ces dernières années. Aoun cherche ainsi à innocenter le Hezbollah et la Syrie des assassinats au Liban, en contrepartie de son élection à la présidence de la République.

Ce qui inquiète le plus les Libanais c’est à cet égard la concurrence entre les deux généraux, Michel Aoun et Michel Sleiman. Car, dans cette perspective, le bras de fer pourrait déboucher sur un conflit qui se règlerait sur le terrain, dans les régions chrétiennes, épargnées - pour le moment, mais pour combien de temps ? - par les violences et par le coup d’Etat mené par le Hezbollah.

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9 mai 2008 5 09 /05 /mai /2008 12:38

Lebanon Explodes Again

Hezbollah may look like it is trying to take over Lebanon - but the truth is that such a victory isn't in anyone's interest - even its own. Here's why.

 

Three words summarize what is happening in Lebanon: Hezbo* is winning. At least, militarily. Actually, Hezbo had already won the military battle before it even started.

For the past two days, their troops have been moving through Beirut’s neighbourhoods, overtaking positions held by Saad Hariri’s Future Movement men.  Walid Jumblatt’s PSP militia has been a harder nut to crack, but crack it will.

Life in the heat of battle was new to the younger generation, for whom the reactions ranged from disbelief to fear. But the actual fighting was nothing new to older people, and reactivated dormant memories of the past.

The battle was similar to Hezbo’s intifada against the Lebanese army in the 80s, when scores of well-coordinated Hezbo troops were able to overtake Beirut’s southern suburbs. The army’s battle-hardened troops were able to maintain strongholds back then, although many had switched sides to their sectarian allegiance. Perhaps Lebanon’s army chief General Suleiman is fearful of such a similar break-up, as he apparently refused to follow the government’s order to impose a state of emergency and curfew.

Perhaps he is concerned about the rumored 300 Iranian Pasdaran that had just landed in Beirut Airport the day it was being closed. More likely, he has little real control over the army, much infiltrated by Hezbo. Facing a foe like Hezbo that had just presumably defeated Israel - the once most powerful force in the region, Suleiman may have preferred not to find out the extent of this infiltration. 

It should be noted this battle is different from what happened in the 1980’s in several key aspects, and victories would not achieve much. In fact, there would be major consequences to Hezbo if they achieve victory.

First, in crass sectarian terms, such a victory would represent a Shiite takeover of a Sunni city. The Sunni Mufti of Beirut has already warned of the consequences of such an act. Gone are the days when the assassination of Hassan Khaled could easily cow a population into submission. With Rafic Hariri, Beirutis have tasted greatness, and far too many will forget its sweet taste and contend with Hezbollah’s sour grapes. In his speech yesterday, Nasrallah tried to paint the battle as one against Jumblatt, but everybody saw it as a war against Sunnis.

Second, in political terms, it is a victory that will have essentially destroyed the last shreds of Lebanon as a state. All Nasrallah’s eloquence will not hide the fact that Hezb has become no different from the Syrian army of old: an arrogant occupier with a birthright complex. The presidency will remain vacant even if the seat is filled; General Suleiman has proven himself to be unworthy of the presidency he has been longing after.

Third, in simple economic terms, Hezbo is taking over an economy they are ill-equipped to control. When the parasite takes over the host, it kills the host and dies with it. While the thugs were taking over their positions, people were changing their Lebanese liras back to dollars.

Finally, in simple national terms, the defeat of the government would represent a defeat of the UN. With no chance of being implemented, UN resolution 1559 will wither away and Hezbo will keep their cherished weapons. But Resolution 1559 is now part of 1701, which also links the resolution to the armistice agreement with Israel and, more importantly, to Lebanon’s border demarcation. So Nasrallah will get to keep his weapons, and the Israelis will get to “redefine” the border.

As a result, we Lebanese may end up with a resistance without a people, an economy, or a land.

What are we fighting about, then?

* Jeha lives in Beirut and blogs at Jeha’s Nail. He refers to Hezbollah as “Hezbo” because he doesn’t believe in a “Party of God.”

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  • : Le blog de Gad
  • : Lessakele : déjouer les pièges de l'actualité Lessakele, verbe hébraïque qui signifie "déjouer" est un blog de commentaire libre d'une actualité disparate, visant à taquiner l'indépendance et l'esprit critique du lecteur et à lui prêter quelques clés de décrytage personnalisées.
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Magie de la langue hébraïque


A tous nos chers lecteurs.

 

Ne vous est-il jamais venu à l'esprit d'en savoir un peu plus sur le titre de ce blog ?

Puisque nous nous sommes aujourd'hui habillés de bleu, il conviendrait de rentrer plus a fond dans l'explication du mot lessakel.

En fait Lessakel n'est que la façon française de dire le mot léhasskil.

L'hébreu est une langue qui fonctionne en déclinant des racines.

Racines, bilitères, trilitères et quadrilitères.

La majorité d'entre elle sont trilitères.

Aussi Si Gad a souhaité appeler son site Lessakel, c'est parce qu'il souhaitait rendre hommage à l'intelligence.

Celle qui nous est demandée chaque jour.

La racine de l'intelligence est sé'hel שכל qui signifie l'intelligence pure.

De cette racine découlent plusieurs mots

Sé'hel > intelligence, esprit, raison, bon sens, prudence, mais aussi croiser

Léhasskil > Etre intelligent, cultivé, déjouer les pièges

Sé'hli > intelligent, mental, spirituel

Léhistakel > agir prudemment, être retenu et raisonnable, chercher à comprendre

Si'hloute > appréhension et compréhension

Haskala >  Instruction, culture, éducation

Lessa'hlen > rationaliser, intellectualiser

Heschkel > moralité

Si'htanout > rationalisme

Si'hloul > Amélioration, perfectionnement

 

Gageons que ce site puisse nous apporter quelques lumières.

Aschkel pour Lessakel.

 

 

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